Udabur Wealth Management：How to perform the global economy？The latest judgment of the three major asset management giants

In the fourth quarter, how does the global economy perform?How should investors allocate global assets reasonably?What is the economic and market prospects in India?In response, Jingshun, Wellington Asset Management and Anshi Global Asset Management Giants shared their latest research and judgment.The size of the three companies in the global management is about $ 1.8 trillion, $ 1.2 trillion, and £ 505.9 billion, respectively.

The three institutions believe that global inflation is basically controlled, and the risk of economic "hard landing" is low.India is conducting positive structural adjustments, favorable for economic growth and market performance in the medium and long term.In the short term, you need to wait for more details to implement it to confirm the long -term turning point of market sentiment and valuation.

Can the global economy soft landUdabur Wealth Management?

Anben predicts that the global economy will achieve "soft landing", and the global interest rate cut period may continue.

Peter Branner, the chief investment director of Anben, pointed out that at present, global inflation risks are affected by multiple factors, including the sharp rise in oil prices, and the global supply chain interruption caused by the intensified situation of the Middle East.

Anben pointed out that a series of data show that the US economic growth is slowing down, industries with sensitive interest rates such as manufacturing and real estate are gradually getting dilemma, and fiscal support is also weakening.And this slowdown may evolve into a more destructive economic contraction. The global interest rate cut cycle will continue, and the equilibrium interest rate is at a relatively low level. The nominal interest rate is between 2%and 3%.

Wellington Investment Management Global Investment and Diversity Asset Strategic NANETTE Abuhoff Jacobson believes that the risk of "hard landing" in the global economy is relatively low and inflation is basically controlled. Therefore, companies in developed markets are expected to achieve strong profit growth.It is expected that after the Fed and the People's Bank of India cut interest rates, most central banks will follow up in the next 12 months to relax monetary policy.

Jingshun's chief global market strategist Kristina Hooper said that in general, the US economy is in a good state and is expected to achieve soft landing.The initial financial report shows that the US economic growth is still tough. It is expected that the profit growth rate of the S & P 500 Index ingredient stock in the third quarter is about 4.1%.

Looking forward to the future, Kristina Hooper said that although a series of economic data has performed well in the near future, it is necessary to pay attention to the existence of the American economic crack, and its core may be the weakening of the US labor market."The number of people who first applied for unemployment relief in the United States on October 10 have soared to the highest level in more than a year. I will pay more attention to the signs of weakening the labor market, because the labor market is the key to maintaining a good consumption in the United States.The key to maintaining health in the US economy. "

How to view Indian assetsSimla Investment

The three major asset management giants are highly concerned about the recent policy "combined boxing" launched by India, and believes that this moves in the middle and long -term benefits to India's economy and market.

Kristina Hooper said that the Indian Ministry of Finance used the balance sheet of various departments to support the long -term economic growth plan to reveal more details.Although the specific scale of the new stimulus measures has not been announced, the plan is mentioned in the plan that it will increase government debt issuance, provide support for local balance sheets, supplement state -owned bank capital, boost the real estate market, and provide financial subsidies for people in need.EssenceIt can be seen that through comprehensive and comprehensive measures, India is undergoing positive structural adjustments to facilitate economic growth and market performance in the medium and long term.

The latest released data shows that India's GDP increased by 4.6%year -on -year in the third quarter, higher than the market expectations 4.5%.

In this regard, Zhao Yaoting, a global market strategist in Jingshun Asia Pacific (except Japan), said that despite the slowdown in economic growth in the second quarter, it has benefited from the recently introduced stimulus measures.Growth is expected to exceed 5.0%.Guoabong Stock

Wellington Investment Management believes that the recent launch of the Indian government has a positive effect on liquidity and market sentiment. At present, it is necessary to wait for more details to implement it to confirm the long -term turning point of market sentiment and valuation.

Anben pointed out that the degree of easing of Indian policies has changed significantly, which may drive the Indian stock market to be re -priced.However, continuous support policies still need to offset the structural resistance of the real estate market.

How to configure global stocks?

Wellington Investment Management has a moderate and super -matching view on global stocks."Although the market fluctuations in the previous quarter increased, the toughness of the company and the global economic fundamentals was still confident., Companies in developed markets are expected to achieve strong profit growth.

Jacobson said that after the Fed announced in September, the US stock market performed strongly.From the perspective of traditional valuation indicators, US stock valuations are high.Out of careful consideration, the neutral view of the US stock market.However, considering the downward and long -term profit growth of interest rates, we believe that the US stock index is closer to fair value.In addition, the growth of productive forces far exceeds the rise in the labor cost of units, which has enhanced the competitiveness of enterprises, expanded corporate profits, and provides support for its improvement of profitability.

Kristina Hooper pointed out that in the past few quarters, the performance of the S & P 500 Index ingredients is higher than expected.In the past 40 quarters, the actual profit growth rate of 37 quarters of the Standard 500 Index has been higher than expected.FactSet Research predicts that after the actual profitability of the S & P 500 Index's ingredient stocks, the year -on -year profit growth may reach about 7%, far exceeding the current expected 4.1%.

Kristina Hooper believes that although the profitability of listed companies exceeds expected and supports stock prices.However, there are significant differences between the performance between each sector. The profit growth of the technology sector is expected to reach 14.9%, and the profit growth of the material and energy sector is expected to be negative.

Anben believes that the recent financial report season shows that the economy has emerged positively, and its profit growth has expanded to cyclical industries.Although the US stock market has high valuations, the high profit margins, high -free cash flows and strong balance sheets of technology stocks make them not repeat the mistakes of the past bubble period.

Regarding the Japanese stock market, Wellington Investment Management stated that after fluctuations in August, the valuation of Japanese stocks seems to be more attractive and is currently optimistic about Japanese stocks.NANETTE Abuhoff Jacobson said: "The fluctuations in the Japanese stock market are mainly caused by the dynamic changes in technical analysis related to investment strategies and arbitrage transactions, not fundamental weakness. In addition, the structural foundation of Japanese stocks -including the improvement of macro backgrounds, and the improvement of macro backgrounds, and the improvement of macro backgrounds, and the improvement of macro backgrounds, and the improvement of macro backgrounds, and the improvement of macro backgrounds, and the improvement of macro backgrounds, and the improvement of macro backgrounds, and the improvement of macro backgrounds, and the improvement of macro backgrounds, and the improvement of macro backgrounds, and the improvement of the macro background, and the improvement of the macro background, and the improvement of the macro background, and the improvement of the macro background.Corporate reforms and cash returns increased through repurchase -generally still stable, there is room for further re -ratingAhmedabad Investment. "

Will the gold hit a new high?

Recently, the price of spot gold has touched $ 2,700/ounce for the first time, a record high.Since this year, the cumulative increase in gold prices has increased by more than 30%.

Regarding the trend of gold in the market, Wellington Investment Management believes that the soaring trend of gold may continue.

"We maintain a moderate super presence of commodities in commodities. In the case of rising geopolitical risks, gold and petroleum may be able to effectively disperse risks when the geopolitical risks are risky. Looking forward to next year, the price of gold will continueThe purchase of gold is still strongAgra Stock. Under the stimulation of preferential tax policies, the demand for retail gold in India and India is expected to increase

What risks must be focused on?

Wellington Investment Management believes that the main risks include related fluctuations that the US elections may bring, a larger amplifier in the Middle East, and soaring inflation.

NANETTE Abuhoff Jacobson said that the core inflation to speed up will make the central banks of various countries adjust the current expected interest rate, and the profitability of large market value stocks may occur unexpectedly."We are paying close attention to the geopolitical conflict of the Middle East. If the conflict is upgraded, it may push up the oil price, which will cause the supply chain to friction, thereby increasing macro uncertainty."

Peter Branner said that geopolitical uncertainty is the main risk factors, including further upgrading in the Middle East conflict, leading to a sharp rise in oil prices and geopolitical risks, and the risk of economic recession led by the United States.No matter who finally enters the White House, the greater risk facing the mid -term market is economic recession, not inflation.

Anben believes that the US election is the main risk of the global economy, and trade and fiscal policies may cause inflation.At present, the expected gap between the two major candidates in the US presidential election is very small, and Trump is likely to win 50%.If Trump wins, it will mean higher interest rates, higher inflation, and US dollar strengthening, and the impact on the stock market is more vague; investment portfolio needs to consider and manage these risks.

Anben said that before the US election, he should strategically increase its holdings.Under the basic assumptions of the economic "soft landing", the US dollar may depreciate slightly in the middle of the dollar.If Trump wins, the US dollar may appreciate and hedge the potential losses of other assets.

Source: Indian Fund News

Bangalore Investment