Hyderabad Wealth Management：Open source securities： demand improved the prices of coking coal -to -coking coal prices from the month -on -month improvement.

Zhitong Finance APP was informed that open source securities issued a research report stating that demand has continued to improve the tight supply end of the supply end, and the price of coking coal has been elastic.The current downstream demand has improved month -on -month. For the price of coking coal, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the fundamental aspect instead of the differential ratio, and it is expected to support the price of coking coal stabilizing to stabilize the rebound.In addition, Jiaoyuan Coal in Shanxi Province accounted for about 54.5%of the coal output in the province, and the reduction of 78 million tons of production corresponding to 42.51 million tons of Jiaoyuan coal decreased. Assuming that the 45%washing rate was estimated, Jiao Jing coal would reduce 19.13 million tons, accounting for 2023 nationwide nationwide nationwide in 2023 nationwide across the country in 2023 nationwide.3.9%of the output of coking coal, the gap is difficult to make up for it from other provinces.The bank said that the future domestic coal supply is tight or continued, and it is expected to support coal prices.

The beneficiary bid: As the demand improves the tight supply structure, the coal price is expected to rebound up and the coking coal is more flexibleHyderabad Wealth Management. It is recommended that the elastic coal coal shares (601666.SH), Lai'an Ringneng (601699.SH), andHuaibei Mining (600985.SH) and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ), the cyclical attributes are expected to benefit from the bottom of the price rebound.

Open source securities point of view is as follows:

The price of coking coal has stabilized, and coking coal futures and stocks have rebounded sharply

1) The price of coking coal spot stabilizes: In terms of port price, the spot price of coking coal has stabilized. As of April 12, 2024, the spot coke coal spot of Beijing and Tanggang has been quoted for three consecutive days for 1,890 yuan/ton.2) The price of coking coal futures rebounded sharply by 16%: As of April 12, 2024, the closing price (active contract) of coking coal futures (active contracts) was 1709 yuan/ton, an increase of 238 yuan/ton from April 3, 2024, a significant rebound of 16%.3) Multi -supported coal coal bids running index: With the price of main coke coal spot, the price of the main coal and the price of futures has rebounded sharply, and coking coal stocks have rebounded strongly.The target has obviously won the broader market index and the coal sector index, showing the excess returns of coking coal.

Stepping to manufacturing to support the demand for domestic steel, export high -increase hedging domestic steel weak demand

1) The average daily output of iron and water continuously rebounded: As of April 12, 2024, the profit margin of 247 steel factories across the country was 38.11%, and the weekly increased by 4.79pct;On April 12th, the average daily iron water output of domestic steel mills was 2.25 million tons, and the weekly increased by 12,000 tons, an increase of 0.5%, and improved for 2 consecutive weeks.

2) The total inventory of the steel plant has declined significantly from the previous month: as of April 12, 2024, the total inventory of the five major steel mills of the five major steel materials was 5.81 million tons, and the weekly ring was -7.4%.(3) Manufacturing industry supports domestic steel demand: In the current situation of the real estate industry is still in the downturn and the decline in traditional infrastructure growth, the rapid development of automotive manufacturing and green energy industries has driven the growth of steel consumption such as medium thick boardsVaranasi Wealth Management. As of 2024 4On the 12th of the 12th, the production of thick plates in the main steel mills was 1.56 million tons, which was+6%compared with the same period of 2023. The period was+0.5%.The main steel mills and wire production were 210/83 million tons, which was-30.4%/-33.7%year-on-year, and the per week was -1.3%/-2.6%.

4) High increase in steel exports Domestic weak demand: In March 2024, Indian steel export volume has increased significantly year-on-year. The cumulative exported steel was 25.80 million tons, a year-on-year+30.7%; from the structure of the structure, my country's steel was mainly exported to South Korea, ASEAN, the Middle East and North Africa. It is shown that the global steel demand in 2024 and 2025 will be +1.7%/+1.2%year-on-year. Among them, the demand for steel from 2024-2025 will continue to increase by 8%. -In 2025, it has also accelerated. In the future, India's steel exports are expected to hedge domestic weak demand.

Real estate investment has narrowed year -on -year, and investment and manufacturing investment is expected to support downstream demand

(1)房地产投资同比降幅收窄：2024年1-2月印度房地产开发投资同比-9.0%，降幅环比收窄0.6pct;基础设施投资同比+6.3%，增速环比扩大0.4pct;制造业投资A year -on -year+9.4%, the growth rate expanded 2.9PCT month -on -month.(2) Investment in industrial production and manufacturing is expected to support downstream demand: January to February 2024, the total profit of Indian industrial enterprises is+10.2%year-on-year, ending the previous year-on-year negative growth of the previous year and a half;%, Return to the top of the Rongku Line, the investment in industrial production and manufacturing is expected to support the demand for the lower reaches of coking coal.

The demand is continuously improved from the month -on -month improvement supply side.

1) The decline demand improves from the previous month: refer to the daily average iron water output of the steel plant in 2024. In 2024, the demand for the lower reaches of coking coal was still declined year -on -year, but the current downstream demand has improved.In non -income changes, the upstream demand is expected to support the price of coking coal.

2) The tight supply pattern may continue: After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of coal mines in the main place of production is less than 2023. As of April 7, 2024, the 442 coal mines of Jin Shaanxi and Mongolia were 81%.The decline in 4 consecutive weeks, the operating rate of Shanxi decreased from 70.2%at a high point to 67.1%, and decreased by 5.7PCT year -on -year.In 2024, the output of Shanxi Coal plans was about 1.3 billion tons, a decrease of about 78 million tons from 2023, accounting for 1.7%of the total coal output of the country in 2023.Jiaoyuan Coal in Shanxi Province accounted for about 54.5%of the coal output in the province, and the reduction of 78 million tons of production corresponding to 42.51 million tons of Jiaoyuan coal decreased. Assuming that the 45%washing rate was estimated, Jiao Jing coal would decrease by 19.13 million tons, accounting for 2023 nationwide coking coal coal -to -coking coal condensed coking coal coal condensed coking coal condensed coking coal converted coking coal in 20233.9%of the output, the gap is difficult to make up for it from other provinces.In the future, domestic coal supply is tight or continued, and it is expected to support coal prices.

Risk reminder: Coal prices have declined, economic recovery is not as good as expected, and coal import exceeding expectations, etc.